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Exit Pak Lah

Malaysian Insider (26/9/08): It is game over for Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

His 2010 transition plan was shredded by his deputy and the Umno Supreme Council today and he was presented with little choice but to accept the exit plan.

The plan calls for the Umno General Assembly and party elections to be postponed from December till March next year. Divisions will still meet from Oct 9 and nominate candidates for top positions in the party.

At a brief press conference after the Supreme Council meeting, Abdullah appeared to suggest as much that the 2010 plan had been dumped.

The Umno president said: "If we want to make it before 2010, it is not an issue."

He also added that he would make an announcement before Oct 9, when party divisions will meet to nominate their candidates for the party leadership.

One name not likely to be considered is Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. He is expected to announce that he will not defend his party president's position, possibly just after the Hari Raya holidays.

He will then stay on as party president and prime minister until March 2009. Presumably he will be given some time to complete some of the reforms he promised Malaysians and then be given a grand send off at the party assembly.

Party vice-president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who has been one of those pressuring Pak Lah to step down earlier, said after the meeting, that the postponement of the general assembly was effectively a new deadline for Abdullah to leave office.

The extension of his term of office until at least March will not remove the bitter feeling among Abdullah's supporters that he allowed himself to be outflanked by Najib and other supreme council members,

A day earlier, Najib told Abdullah that the party assembly and elections would be pushed back to June.

This morning, the two men met privately just before the Supreme Council meeting, and it became March.

Even though no words to the effect were uttered by the council, it is clear that they want Abdullah out sooner rather than later.

Winners and losers

Malaysian Insider (26/9/08): The decision by the Umno Supreme Council to postpone the party polls till March next year will have a major impact on many of the big players in the party. Below is the Malaysian Insider's take on who benefits from it and who loses big time.

WINNERS

• Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak:

After Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi does the inevitable and announces that he will not seek re-election as party president, nearly all 191 nominations from the divisions will flow to Najib.

This new transition plan works for the Deputy Prime Minister like a dream. By persuading Abdullah to accept the March transition plan, he has managed to remove the two impediments to the top job in the party – the possibility of him having to face the wrath of the ground by continuing to stay with Abdullah or the possibility of having to confront Abdullah in a no-holds barred contest.

Not too shabby for someone who only a few months ago was having to defend himself against Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

The Opposition leader implicated Najib in the murder of Mongolian model Altantuya Shariibuu and accused him of benefiting in several defence deals while Dr Mahathir accused him of being a coward by not forcing Abdullah out of office after Election 2008.

With Abdullah all but gone, Dr Mahathir will probably rejoin Umno, team up with Najib and fight Anwar. Najib will inherit a united Umno.

• Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin:

He wore the broadest grin today. Not surprising since today was a victory of sorts for the party vice-president.

He has been leading the charge within Umno to force Abdullah to step down since March 8, moving his criticisms from behind closed doors to public forums. Muhyiddin's main plank of attack was that the party and Barisan Nasional has lost confidence in the PM.

When Abdullah and Najib agreed on the 2010 transition plan, it seemed that Muhyiddin's efforts were going to end up in tears. But the BN defeat in Permatang Pauh in August galvanised Muhyiddin and other critics of Abdullah.

They whipped up the percolating anti-Abdullah sentiment, making it difficult for either the PM or DPM to ignore them. Now as critic-in-chief, he is poised to be the favourite to suck up most of the nominations for the deputy president's position.

• Datuk Zaid Ibrahim:

Zaid's decision to resign from the Cabinet seems to be the correct one in the light of the supreme council decision. In all likelihood, the prime minister is going to be in a lame duck position until the end of his term in March.

It would be a major surprise if Abdullah manages to make any headway with the Judicial Appointments Commission and other judicial reforms.

If Zaid had stayed on in the Cabinet, he would have been occupying space, nothing more. His protector would have been powerless to offer him any cover from the Umno warlords or keep his promise of improving the judiciary.

LOSERS

• Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi:

He has never wanted this type of send-off. In discussions with friends and political supporters, Abdullah made it clear that he wanted to leave on his own terms.

This became challenging after March 8 when the BN lost its customary two-thirds majority in Parliament and four states to the Opposition.

But he regrouped and promised to complete the reforms which he promised Malaysians in his first term of office.

A combination of paralysis of action, dancing to his party's tune and inability to match Anwar's vibrancy led him to a cul-de-sac.

Yet he appeared to have pulled off a miraculous escape in July when his plan to hand over power to Najib in 2010 was endorsed by the supreme council.

For a while, it looked like he had bought himself two years to complete his reforms and salvage his legacy.

Anwar's resounding victory in Permatang Pauh stunned party members and once again, Abdullah or rather his failures became the focus of Umno members.

From then on, it became evident that Abdullah would face a tough time convincing his party men that he deserved their support.

The March timetable is nothing more than a face-saving way of showing Abdullah the exit. He is not leaving on his own terms.

• Many division chiefs and senior Umno politicians:

Postponing the party elections will hit some of these warlords hard in the pocket. Many of them have been spending a great deal of money, and now they will have to loosen their purse strings right up till March.

The winners in March may well turn out to be those with the deepest pockets.

Najib ambil alih disifatkan berita baik

Harakah (26/9/08): Naib Presiden PAS, Haji Mohamad Sabu menyifatkan penyerahan kuasa kepada Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak yang dijangka pada bulan Mac ini sebagai berita baik kepada pembangkang.

"Jika Tengku Razaleigh yang mengambil alih kepimpinan dari (Datuk Seri) Abdullah (Ahmad Badawi), ia berita yang tidak menggembirakan kepada kita. Kalau Najib ambil alih, itu berita baik," katanya.

Mesyuarat Majlis Tertinggi Umno pagi tadi dilihat memberi tarikh akhir yang baru kepada Abdullah supaya berundur dengan menetapkan perhimpunan agung parti itu akan diadakan pada Mac ini.

Bagaimanapun, tarikh pemilihan di peringkat bahagian-bahagian mulai 9 Oktober dikekalkan.

Ketika ditemui para pemberita selepas mesyuarat itu, Abdullah sendiri membayangkan bahawa pelan peralihan kuasa pada Jun 2010 seperti yang dikehendakinya tidak diterima oleh MT.

Ditanya lanjut mengenai pelan peralihan kuasa 2010, Presiden Umno berkata: "Kalau sudah diawalkan tidak timbullah (pelan) 2010 itu."

Ketika diminta penjelasan mengenai maksud bagi melicinkan proses peralihan kuasa awal, Abdullah berkata "ia adalah bagi membuat penyerahan apa juga yang diperlukan..."

Perdana Menteri juga dipetik sebagai berkata: "Apabila kerja habis, habislah".

Bagaimanapun, untuk menjaga air mukanya, Abdullah memberitahu bahawa beliau belum memutuskan sama ada akan mempertahankan jawatan presiden.

Bagaimanapun, katanya, beliau akan membuat keputusan mengenainya sebelum mesyuarat bahagian bermula 9 Oktober depan.

"Apa-apa keputusan saya akan buat sebelum mesyuarat bahagian," katanya.

Sebelum ini, Business Times Singapura melaporkan seorang pemimpin Umno menjangka Abdullah akan akan mendapat kira-kira 40 pencalonan sahaja.

Seseorang calon yang mahu bertanding sebagai Presiden Umno memerlukan sekurang-kurangnya 58 pencalonan daripada 193 bahagian Umno.

Mengulas lanjut tanda-tanda pemilihan Najib sebagai pengganti Abdullah Mac ini, Mohamad Sabu berkata, walaupun Tengku Razaleigh mempunyai sikap yang boleh dianggap lunak dalam soal-soal perlaksanaan Islam, tetapi beliau tetap berpendapat Najib lebih mudah dihadapi pembangkang.

"Kepada pembangkang, eloklah kalau Najib yang ganti. Nak berhadapan dengan Najib lebih kurang berhadapan dengan Abdullah. Dua-dua sama sahaja.

"Kita tak senanglah kalau Tengku Razaleigh yang ganti Abdullah walaupun kita akui Tengku Razaleigh tak kacau kalau orang nak laksana Islam. Dia tidaklah tolak dengan berdalih-dalih guna hujah maqasid syari'ah dan sebagainya. Dia bukan jenis yang tunjuk pandai," katanya.

Seorang pemimpin Gerakan baru-baru ini menyifatkan Najib mempunyai liabiliti dan beban politik.

Walaupun mengakui komuniti perniagaan senang dengan ketenangan, kepastian dan ketegasan Najib tetapi Malaysian Insider (MI) memetik pemimpin Gerakan itu berkata, "Reputasinya (Najib) tercemar dengan pembunuhan wanita Mongolia".

Beliau merujuk pembunuhan Altantuya Shaariibuu pada 2006 lalu.

Pihaknya, kata pemimpin Gerakan itu, bimbang adakah isu yang serius itu akan memburuk menjadi tamparan yang hebat kepada Barisan Nasional (BN) kelak.

Persepsi umum masih lagi dibelenggu dengan begitu banyak persoalan yang tidak pernah dijawab berhubung kesluruhan episod itu.

"Ia adalah satu liabiliti...bebanan politik yang akan memberi kesan kelak jika terbiar tidak diselesaikan terutama apabila musuh politik Najib begitu aktif, mungkin semakin kuat dan secara terbuka mensasarkan beliau untuk menghancurkannya," MI memetik beliau berkata.

Persepsi rakyat tentang Najib mungkin disimpulkan dengan baik dalam kenyataan seorang peguam yang juga bekas pemimpin MIC kepada MI: "Datang dari lubuk tercemar Umno-BN yang sama, tentulah kejujujuran dan integriti Najib diragui umum".